On the evening of December 21, at the 2024 NIO Day, NIO's third brand, Firefly, finally made its much-anticipated debut. The new car is priced at 148,800 RMB pre-sale and will officially launch and deliver in April next year.
The Firefly brand has faced skepticism from the start, especially since NIO has been a heavy loss-making company. “NIO hasn’t even sorted out its brand yet, and now it’s wasting money again,” is a common sentiment shared by many, including some NIO shareholders and owners.
So, how good is Firefly's product strength? Can it become NIO’s new growth engine and help NIO make money?
Controversial Exterior Design
The biggest controversy surrounding Firefly is undoubtedly its exterior design, with many people criticizing it as ugly. Some have even made jokes like “inspired by iPhone’s three-camera” and “shaver-like design.”
The designer of Firefly is Kris Tomasson, who has previously worked as a key designer at BMW, Ford, Gulfstream, and Coca-Cola. He joined NIO in 2015, and many of NIO’s beautiful cars, such as the ET7, ET5, ES8, and ES6, were designed by him.
It can be said that Kris’s ability is unquestionable, so did Firefly’s design flop?
Most people are still judging it based on online photos and videos, which may differ from the actual car. Li Bin said the day after NIO Day, “No one who’s seen the real car said it’s ugly.”
In addition, many netizens said they didn’t find it attractive the night of the launch, but it grew on them the next day.
I also looked at many international opinions, and most of them were favorable, with about 70% of them praising the design.
Finally, Firefly’s “trio” design is also unique and very recognizable.
For now, I think we should “let the bullets fly a little longer” before deciding whether Kris's design failed.
Safety, Space, and Intelligence are Highlights
Most of the time at NIO Day was dedicated to the ET9, and Firefly's presentation lasted only about 20 minutes, but several key highlights were still revealed.
First is safety. As a global model, Firefly is designed to meet the dual five-star safety standards of China and Europe. It’s worth noting that the 2024 version of Euro-NCAP five-star ratings are hard to obtain.
Firefly comes standard with 9 airbags, including double-chamber front airbags, and side airbags that extend to the C-pillar. Typically, cars in this price range only have 6 airbags, and these features are not even available on many cars priced over 500,000 RMB.
In terms of body structure, the front and side are equipped with double crash beams, and the use of high-strength steel and aluminum alloys accounts for 83.4% of the car’s body. The torsional rigidity of the car body reaches 35,700 N·m/deg, the strongest among small cars.
Next, let’s talk about space. Firefly has a 92L waterproof front trunk, which is very rare at this level. Additionally, when the rear seats are folded down, it provides 1,250 liters of flat space. In comparison, the BMW Mini Electric’s rear seat folding space is only 800 liters.
Lastly, let’s talk about intelligence. Although Firefly, NIO, and Ledo use different cockpit systems, they all rely on NIO’s latest TianShu SkyOS vehicle intelligent operating system. If we compare it with the system in the Ledo L60, Firefly’s intelligence is built on solid foundations.
In terms of intelligent driving, according to Firefly’s president Jin She, the chips and perception system are from Horizon Robotics, but the decision-making and control are handled by NIO’s autonomous driving team. While not as “luxurious” as NIO’s hardware, Firefly can still achieve functions like NOA on city expressways, highways, and automatic parking.
Personally, I predict that when Firefly is officially launched in April, the price will be around 138,800 RMB, with the BaaS model starting at 98,800 RMB. Considering the Ledo L60 was priced at 206,900 RMB at launch, which was 13,000 RMB less than the pre-sale price, this prediction seems reasonable.
Now, let’s answer two questions: Is the price of 138,800 RMB competitive? And can it help NIO make money?
First, Firefly’s direct competitor is the electric MINI Cooper, priced between 148,800 and 201,800 RMB. The entry-level model is very basic, with fabric seats and manual transmission, and the front-wheel-drive system accelerates to 100 km/h in 8.1 seconds.
From the photos, Firefly’s rear suspension is a five-link design with a rear brake caliper, which, combined with its front trunk, suggests that it is rear-wheel drive. Plus, considering its advantages in safety, space, and intelligence, Firefly’s product strength in the compact car segment is solid.
So, can this price point help NIO make money? Li Bin promised to turn a profit by 2026. If Firefly fails to help, it could become a cash flow black hole, and NIO could lose money.
My guess is yes. First, Firefly’s sales channels are directly through NIO stores, and due to its small size, it won’t put too much pressure on NIO showrooms, while offering access to a large pool of high-quality customers. NIO has already accumulated 650,000 high-quality users, which other brands cannot match. Firefly’s cost advantages in channels and marketing are significant.
However, Firefly does have a costly element: building new battery swap stations. But Li Bin mentioned that Firefly’s stations are the size of shipping containers and will only be installed in cities, making the overall cost manageable.
In conclusion, Firefly’s safety, space, and intelligence do provide advantages in this price range, and NIO’s push for Firefly is strategic.
But there are two major risks: First, will the exterior design be accepted by the public? Second, Firefly will be sold globally, especially in Europe, where Chinese electric cars face tariffs, and localization will be challenging. While small cars are popular in Europe (with 4 million annual sales), Firefly may not make money there, which could be problematic for NIO, who faces mounting pressure to be profitable.
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